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Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024
Satellite imagery suggests that Kirk has begun the process
of extratropical transition. Most of the convection is
located on the north side of the low-level center due to strong
south-southwesterly wind shear. Subjective Dvorak estimates from
SAB and TAFB range from 65-75 kt, while the latest objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 65-80 kt. The
intensity has been lowered to 75 kt for this advisory. ASCAT data
from earlier this morning necessitated an increase in the initial
wind radii, showing that Kirk is a very large hurricane.
There have been no significant changes to the track reasoning. A
narrow mid- to upper-level ridge east of Kirk will weaken over the
next 24-36 h, allowing Kirk to turn east-northeastward or eastward
within the zonal mid-latitude westerly flow. The new NHC track
forecast lies nearly on top of the previous NHC track, although the
new track is a bit slower. This track is relatively close to the
TVCA and a bit slower than the HCCA corrected consensus guidance.
The NHC forecast shows Kirk passing north of the Azores Monday night
and Tuesday as an extratropical cyclone, and should reach western
Europe late Wednesday, where it could bring gale force winds.
Kirk is forecast to continue to gradually weaken as it reaches
cooler waters by tonight. Additionally, the southwesterly vertical
wind shear is forecast to increase significantly over the system by
early Monday morning. Global models show the development of frontal
features on Monday, and extratropical transition has been moved up
to 24 h in the latest official forecast. Despite gradual weakening
as Kirk becomes post-tropical, the cyclone is expected to remain a
large and powerful cyclone until it reaches the coast of western
Europe. Therefore, the system will continue to spread very large
swells across a large portion of the North Atlantic Ocean for a few
more days. The latest NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of
the guidance during the extratropical portion of the forecast, in
best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF global models. By early
Thursday, the cyclone will become elongated over western Europe, and
the latest NHC forecast shows dissipation in 96 h.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 37.0N 46.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 39.4N 42.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 42.1N 37.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/0600Z 43.3N 30.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1800Z 43.6N 21.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 09/0600Z 44.7N 11.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1800Z 47.1N 2.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen
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