Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023

Overall, the structure of the cyclone hasn't changed significantly 
since this morning. Its low-level center is still displaced west of 
most of the associated deep convection. That said, satellite 
intensity estimates are generally a little higher than they were 
about 6 hours ago, ranging from about 30 to 35 kt. The intensity is 
set at 35 kt, in best agreement with the latest subjective TAFB 
Dvorak estimate and the objective UW-CIMSS DMINT and SATCON, making 
the system Tropical Storm Philippe.

Philippe is expected to maintain its general structure for the next 
couple of days, which should prevent it from substantially 
strengthening. While the intensity guidance is generally slightly 
higher than 6 h ago, the dynamical models remain in generally good 
agreement on the intensity forecast for the next few days. Beyond 72 
h, Philippe will approach a mid- to upper-level trough, which could 
result in an increase of both upper-level difluence and deep-layer 
shear. Slight additional intensification is possible at that point, 
but no periods of significant strengthening are expected during the 
next 5 days. The official intensity forecast remains near the IVCN 
and HCCA intensity consensus aids.

The tropical storm continues to move westward, near 12 kt. This 
should generally continue for the next couple of days until Philippe 
approaches the aforementioned trough. At that point, as long as the 
tropical storm has strengthened slightly as expected, it should 
begin to turn northwestward, and then northward, influenced by the 
deeper-layer steering flow imparted by the trough. The official 
track forecast has been shifted slightly northeastward and slower 
compared to the previous one, and is close to the latest HCCA 
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 15.6N  39.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  24/0600Z 15.7N  41.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  24/1800Z 15.9N  43.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  25/0600Z 16.3N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  25/1800Z 16.7N  48.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  26/0600Z 17.2N  50.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  26/1800Z 18.0N  51.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  27/1800Z 21.0N  53.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 24.0N  54.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky