Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2023

Visible satellite images continue to show Philippe with a fully
exposed center far removed to the west of all of the deep
convection. The continued disorganized appearance suggests at least
some weakening has occurred, and satellite intensity estimates
concur. Thus, the wind speed has been lowered to 40 kt.

Philippe continues to be impacted by 20-25 kt of deep-layer
west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. This wind shear is forecast
by both GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models to persist or even
increase further during the next few days. This unfavorable shear
combined with dry air entrainment will hinder strengthening through
the forecast period. A few models suggest some slight increase in
intensity in the 48- to 72-hour time frame due to warmer sea-surface
temperatures, but other environmental factors will remain negative.
The new forecast indicates no change in strength over the next
several days, with some weakening toward the end of the forecast
period.

The exposed low-level center of Philippe has been moving west today 
with a slight increase in forward motion this afternoon. The system 
should veer toward the west-northwest tonight then turn northwest by 
mid-week as Philippe moves toward a weakness in the subtropical 
ridge.  By late week, this weakness becomes less pronounced and the 
overall steering flow diminishes. The forecast track at the end of 
the period therefore slows and curves back toward the 
west-northwest. There remains considerable spread in the track 
models this afternoon, with the GFS and its ensemble members 
representing far rightward outliers. With the ongoing motion to the 
west and a leftward shift of the overall guidance output, the NHC 
forecast track has been adjusted slightly west, especially beyond 72 
hours due to the aforementioned steering flow changes.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 17.3N  46.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  26/0600Z 17.7N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  26/1800Z 18.4N  50.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  27/0600Z 19.3N  52.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  27/1800Z 20.4N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
60H  28/0600Z 21.6N  55.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  28/1800Z 22.2N  56.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  29/1800Z 22.9N  57.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 23.4N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Konarik/Cangialosi