Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

Margot is looking a little better organized on satellite imagery 
this morning compared to yesterday. A SSMIS microwave pass from 
earlier this morning depicted that some banding features are trying 
to develop on the northeastern side of the low-level center. The 
deep convection also continues to burst near the center of the 
system as well, with cold cloud tops. Subjective and objective 
satellite intensity estimates from SAB/TAFB remain the same as the 
previous cycle. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 40 kt for 
this advisory.

Margot is currently within an environment of moderate vertical wind 
shear and dry mid-level relative humidities. However, despite the 
less than favorable environment the intensity guidance indicates 
that Margot will gradually strengthen over the next few days as it 
enters a more favorable upper-level wind pattern, and continues 
over warm sea surface temperatures.  The NHC forecast therefore 
shows slow strengthening throughout the forecast period, similar to 
the previous advisory, and lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus 
aids.

Margot is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt around the edge of a 
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. This west-northwest 
motion will continue during the next day or so, followed by a turn 
to the northwest and northward by late in the weekend and early next 
week, with a slower forward motion.  Models are in fairly good 
agreement in the short-term. However, the track model spread 
increases in both cross- and along-track spread beyond day 3 to 4, 
as there is some uncertainty in the steering flow.  The NHC track 
forecast lies near the model consensus aids, and only slight 
adjustments to the previous forecast were made.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 20.5N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  10/0000Z 21.2N  39.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  10/1200Z 22.3N  40.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  11/0000Z 23.6N  40.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  11/1200Z 25.0N  41.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  12/0000Z 26.6N  41.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  12/1200Z 28.4N  41.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  13/1200Z 32.0N  42.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  14/1200Z 34.3N  43.2W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly