Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

Deep convection has been gradually increasing near and to the north 
of the center of Margot during the past few hours.  The satellite 
intensity estimates range from 30 to 38 kt, and based on that data, 
the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt.

Margot is moving to the west-northwest at about 14 kt on the 
southwest side of a mid-level ridge.  The storm is expected to 
gradually turn to the northwest and then the north as it moves 
toward a weakness in the ridge induced by a mid- to upper-level low 
over the central subtropical Atlantic.  The models are in fairly 
good agreement, but there are some differences on where and when 
Margot makes the northward turn.  The NHC track forecast is similar 
to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Global models show Margot strengthening for unconventional reasons. 
While there are sufficiently warm ocean water along the forecast 
track, deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to be strong to 
moderate as the storm nears an upper-level low pressure.  Typically, 
increased shear would lead to a weakening cyclone, but Margot could 
be positioned beneath an area of diffluence leading to increased 
convection and therefore, strengthening.  The NHC intensity forecast 
is similar to the previous one and near the IVCN and HCCA consensus 
models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 17.4N  30.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  08/1800Z 18.2N  33.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  09/0600Z 19.4N  35.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  09/1800Z 20.6N  37.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  10/0600Z 21.9N  39.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  10/1800Z 23.5N  40.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  11/0600Z 25.2N  41.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  12/0600Z 28.3N  42.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 31.4N  43.1W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi