Hurricane Margot Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023


The satellite depiction of Margot has become more ragged this 
evening. After a brief increase in convection earlier today, recent 
infrared imagery shows that the convective banding has become more 
broken as dry air wraps into the system. The system has also crossed 
over a tongue of cooler SSTs, which is limiting deep convection. 
With what convection remains the cloud tops have been warming the 
past few hours. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates were CI 
3.5/4.0 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Given the satellite 
depiction and the current intensity satellite estimates, the initial 
intensity is lowered to 65 kt for this advisory.

Margot has started to make the forecasted clockwise loop in the 
central Atlantic, with a current estimated motion of 070/3 kt. A 
ridge over the north Atlantic is responsible for Margot slowing 
down and then starting a clockwise loop which will last the next 
few days. The aforementioned ridge will eventually shift eastward 
and Margot should then begin to more northeastward towards the end 
of the forecast period. While the overall track pattern has come 
into better agreement, there remains along-track speed differences, 
with the GFS being the fastest and further northeast. No big changes 
to the track forecast were made from the previous one, with only 
slight adjustments to trend towards the model consensus aids.

Margot is encountering a fairly hostile environment with low 
mid-level relative humidity values and moderate wind shear. Margot 
has also crossed a cold tongue of SSTs in the central Atlantic, and 
given the slow motion it will also cross its own upwelled cooler 
wake. Given the unfavorable conditions, the system should continue 
to gradually weaken throughout the period, likely becoming a 
tropical storm in the next 12-24 h. Margot should become a 
post-tropical cyclone at some point early next week. However, model 
simulated satellite still depicts bursts of convection from time to 
time, and until there is better agreement, the official forecast 
keeps the post-tropical extratropical transition at Day 5, although 
this could occur sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 36.9N  38.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  15/1200Z 36.7N  38.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  16/0000Z 36.1N  38.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  16/1200Z 35.6N  39.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  17/0000Z 35.4N  41.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  17/1200Z 35.5N  42.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  18/0000Z 36.5N  43.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  19/0000Z 39.2N  41.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 40.1N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly