Hurricane Margot Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 14 2023

An inner eyewall redeveloped today, with the outer eyewall 
persisting.  Outflow is well-established to Margot's north and 
northeast, near the base of a shortwave trough in the northeast 
Atlantic.  Vertical wind shear over the hurricane appears modest and 
not enough to cause additional weakening.  The initial wind speed 
remains set to 70 kt, a compromise between the earlier higher SAR 
estimates and Dvorak values closer to 65 kt, as Margot does not 
appear to have degraded today.

Margot has turned further to the right, or 050/4.  A blocking ridge 
over the north-central Atlantic should force Margot to slow down and 
execute a clockwise loop during the next few days.  After the ridge 
shifts eastward, the hurricane should gain some latitude and begin 
to move more to the northeast at the end of the forecast period.  
Model guidance is in good agreement on this general idea, although 
there is considerable spread at long range with the GFS faster and 
more to the northeast than the ECMWF-based guidance.  The new 
forecast remains close to continuity, near or just behind the model 
consensus.

The hurricane should gradually weaken as the large system slows down 
and upwells cooler water, along with it crossing over its own cold 
wake.  Simulated satellite imagery indicates that over the weekend, 
Margot could be struggling to maintain convection near its center.  
There is plenty of mid-level dry air in the surrounding environment, 
as it navigates around the center of a warm-core high, which could 
be mixed in the core.  Margot could become a post-tropical cyclone 
without deep convection early next week, but that really depends on 
how it handles the more hostile conditions and if it can regain 
convection as it tries to escape into the westerlies.  Given how 
resilient this season's tropical cyclones have been, it could be 
optimistic that Margot is post-tropical on day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 36.9N  39.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  15/0600Z 36.9N  38.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  15/1800Z 36.4N  38.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  16/0600Z 35.8N  39.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  16/1800Z 35.4N  40.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  17/0600Z 35.4N  41.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  17/1800Z 35.7N  43.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  18/1800Z 38.6N  42.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 40.2N  37.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roth/Blake