Official Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center

Margot (AL142023) DATA RELEASED: 9/11/2023 3:00:00 PM UTC

Copy of official data

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 11 2023

Satellite images indicate that Margot is strengthening. A ragged 
eye has emerged from the central dense overcast pattern, although 
it is open on the east side.  Additionally, overnight microwave 
data showed the eye pattern on numerous passes, suggesting this is 
a real eye feature.  With the improvement in the satellite 
presentation, the initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, closest to 
the D-MINT intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS, but below recent 
Dvorak DT estimates of 65 kt. 

Margot is moving northward at about 9 kt, and that general motion 
should continue for the next few days, with a north-northwest bend 
expected by midweek as ridging builds to the east of the storm.  A 
large mid-latitude ridge is forecast to block Margot's path after 
that time, causing the cyclone to basically stall by the weekend.  
Guidance is in very good agreement for the first few days, then the 
uncertainty grows in unsteady steering currents beneath the ridge, 
with aids fanning out in all directions.  The new forecast is 
similar to the previous one, showing little motion at days 4-5 as a 
compromise between the various divergent model solutions.

The storm has a chance to strengthen further over the next couple 
of days while it moves over relatively warm waters up to 28 deg C 
and in lessening shear.  In a few days, an increase in shear and 
dry-air entrainment should gradually weaken Margot.  This is an 
interesting forecast because the dynamical model guidance is well 
below the statistical guidance, despite a seemingly conducive 
environment for intensification.  The new NHC forecast leans 
closer to the statistical models, adjusted a bit higher than the 
last NHC intensity prediction, similar to the Florida State 
Superensemble and NOAA corrected-consensus models.   


INIT  11/1500Z 26.1N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  12/0000Z 27.6N  40.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  12/1200Z 29.8N  40.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  13/0000Z 31.9N  40.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  13/1200Z 33.6N  41.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
60H  14/0000Z 34.7N  41.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  14/1200Z 35.8N  41.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  15/1200Z 37.1N  40.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 37.0N  41.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

Forecaster Blake/Taylor