Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

Margot has been exhibiting a figure six cloud pattern on satellite 
imagery, with a dry slot wrapping around the eastern portion of the 
circulation.  Central convection has not increased recently, and the 
system has become essentially co-located with an upper-level trough. 
The combination of Margot and the trough appears to have created an 
upper-level outflow channel over the northeast quadrant, but outflow 
is limited elsewhere.  Subjective Dvorak classifications are T3.5 
from both TAFB and SAB, corresponding to a current intensity of 55 
kt.  Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are mostly a little 
lower, and there is no change to the current maximum winds for this 
advisory.

The storm continues to move on a northward heading with a motion 
estimate of 360/7 kt.  Margot should move generally northward 
through a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge for the next 
48 to 72 hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed.  In 3 to 5 
days, a blocking high develops to the north of the tropical cyclone. 
This should result in a slow and possibly erratic motion late in 
the forecast period.  The official forecast track, which is similar 
to the one from the previous advisory, is rather close to the latest 
dynamical model consensus, TVCA, objective aid.

Global model predictions indicate that, over the next couple of 
days, the upper-level trough will shift south and southwest of 
Margot with anticyclonic upper-tropospheric flow developing over the 
system.  This should be conducive for some strengthening, and the 
official forecast shows Margot becoming a hurricane soon and then 
intensifying a little more over the next 48 hours.  This is in good 
agreement with the LGEM and consensus intensity models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 24.6N  39.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  11/1200Z 26.0N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  12/0000Z 27.8N  40.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  12/1200Z 29.8N  40.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  13/0000Z 31.8N  40.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  13/1200Z 33.6N  41.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  14/0000Z 34.8N  41.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  15/0000Z 36.6N  41.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 37.5N  40.8W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch