Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

Margot's satellite depiction has not improved much throughout the 
afternoon. The system is dealing with west-southwesterly wind 
shear, and struggling to become better organized. The low-level 
center does have intermittent convective bursts that are then 
sheared to the northeast. Given the lack of improvement in 
satellite, the subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates from SAB/TAFB remain steady. Therefore, the initial 
intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory.

Environmental conditions are currently not very favorable with
moderate vertical wind shear, and dry mid-levels. Despite
the less than favorable environment the intensity guidance indicates
that Margot will gradually strengthen over the next few days as it
enters a more conducive upper-level wind pattern.  The NHC forecast
is similar to the previous one, with gradual strengthening 
anticipated, and lies near the corrected consensus aids.

Margot is moving northwestward at 8 kt around the edge of a 
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. This northwest motion 
will continue during the next day or so, followed by a turn to the 
north-northwest and north by late in the weekend and early next 
week.  Models are in fairly good agreement in the short-term. 
However, the track model spread increases in both cross- and 
along-track directions beyond day 3. There has been a shift to the 
right in the consensus aids, and the NHC has followed suit with a 
slight shift to the right in the extended range. However, the NHC 
track forecast remains to the left of some of the consensus aids, 
and if this trend continues further adjustments to the forecast 
track will be needed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 21.0N  38.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  10/0600Z 21.7N  39.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  10/1800Z 23.1N  40.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  11/0600Z 24.6N  40.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  11/1800Z 26.0N  41.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  12/0600Z 27.7N  41.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  12/1800Z 29.7N  41.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  13/1800Z 33.1N  41.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 34.8N  41.8W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly