Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
200 PM CVT Thu Sep 07 2023

Visible and infrared satellite imagery depicts that showers and 
thunderstorms have become better organized around a well-defined 
low-level center associated with the low pressure area (AL96) that 
NHC has been tracking the past few days. Subjective satellite 
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T2.0/30 kt. 
Given the better defined low-level center and these satellite 
estimates, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression 
Fourteen over the far eastern Atlantic, with an initial intensity
of 30 kt. 

The depression is moving generally west-northwest and this 
motion is forecast to continue over the next few days, with a 
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north at the end of the 
forecast period, into a weakness in the tropical ridge. The 
guidance envelope is in fairly good agreement and the NHC track 
forecast lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.

Tropical Depression Fourteen is forecast to be over warm sea surface 
temperatures near 28-29 degrees Celsius during the next several 
days. However, the depression will encounter some northerly vertical 
wind shear, and drier mid-level relative humidities along the 
current forecast track. Given the mixed environmental conditions the 
NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the early part 
of the forecast but brings the system to hurricane strength before 
the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA 
and IVCN intensity consensus aids.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 15.7N  26.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  08/0000Z 16.4N  28.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  08/1200Z 17.3N  31.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  09/0000Z 18.5N  34.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  09/1200Z 19.8N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  10/0000Z 21.0N  38.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  10/1200Z 22.4N  40.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  11/1200Z 26.1N  41.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 30.2N  42.7W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Camposano