Official Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center

Joyce (AL112024) DATA RELEASED: 9/29/2024 9:00:00 AM UTC

Copy of official data

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112024
500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

Strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, associated with an 
upper-level trough over the central subtropical Atlantic, continues 
to impact the tropical storm.  Although deep convection has been 
intermittently redeveloping near the center, the persistent shear 
is displacing this shower and thunderstorm activity to the north 
and northeast of the mostly exposed circulation center.  The 
advisory intensity estimate is held at 40 kt, in agreement with 
the most recent scatterometer data.  This is also supported 
by a blend of subjective and objective estimates.

Center fixes indicate that the motion remains about the same, 
or at around 305/8 kt.  An amplifying mid-level trough over the 
east-central Atlantic should cause Joyce to turn northward during 
the next day or so.  If Joyce maintains some vertical depth in 2-3 
days, it could accelerate north-northeastward ahead of the trough 
around that time.  The official track forecast is the same as the 
previous NHC prediction and close to the model consensus. 

Over the next couple of days, Joyce is expected to remain in an 
environment of strong southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear 
and an increasingly dry low- to mid-level air mass.  Therefore, 
weakening is anticipated and the system will probably degenerate 
into a remnant low pressure area in 2-3 days. This is consistent 
with the global model predictions.  The official intensity forecast 
is the same as the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 21.3N  48.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  29/1800Z 22.0N  48.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  30/0600Z 22.7N  49.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  30/1800Z 23.4N  49.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  01/0600Z 24.5N  49.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  01/1800Z 25.6N  48.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  02/0600Z 26.8N  48.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch