Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112024
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

Joyce's low-level center remains exposed on the southwest side of 
bursting deep convection due to moderate-to-strong 
south-southwesterly shear.  The initial intensity remains 40 kt 
based on a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates, 
and a recent ASCAT-C pass.  Deep-layer shear is expected to continue 
affecting Joyce during the next couple of days, turning more out of 
the southwest or west, while the storm also moves through a 
relatively dry air mass.  As a result, continued gradual weakening 
is anticipated, with Joyce potentially becoming a tropical 
depression by early Monday and a remnant low by early Tuesday.  The 
NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the HCCA 
corrected-consensus and the GFS/ECMWF global models.  The remnant 
low is forecast to degenerate into a trough by Wednesday.

Joyce has turned northwestward (305 deg) at 8 kt.  An amplifying 
deep-layer trough over the central Atlantic is expected to cause 
Joyce to turn northward and slow down during the next couple of 
days.  Depending on how much of Joyce is left in 2-3 days, it could 
accelerate toward the north-northeast ahead of the trough.  The NHC 
track forecast is close to the GFEX consensus aid, and it's a little 
faster than the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 20.9N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  29/1200Z 21.6N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  30/0000Z 22.4N  49.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  30/1200Z 23.1N  49.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  01/0000Z 23.8N  49.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  01/1200Z 24.8N  48.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  02/0000Z 26.2N  48.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg