Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Joyce continues to struggle to remain a tropical depression, having 
a fully exposed low-level center displaced to the west of pulsing 
deep convection. This displacement is a result of strong 
southwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of a central Atlantic 
upper-level trough. With no recent surface observations or 
scatterometer wind data available, 30 kt will remain the initial 
intensity, reflecting the subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB and 
SAB.

The depression has meandered this morning, and the current motion 
estimate is an uncertain 360/2 kt. The official track forecast 
depicts a slow northward motion until Joyce fully dissipates in 48 
h, similar to the previous track forecast. 

Continued shear coupled with persistent dry air should increasingly 
inhibit organized convection, leading to Joyce degenerating into a 
remnant low soon. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous 
one showing Joyce becoming a remnant low in 12 h with total 
dissipation in about 48 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 22.4N  49.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  01/0000Z 23.1N  49.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  01/1200Z 24.1N  49.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  02/0000Z 25.3N  49.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  02/1200Z 27.0N  49.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Konarik/Papin