Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112024
500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Joyce's center is mostly exposed, with only a few cells of deep 
convection forming intermittently within the circulation.  Joyce 
continues to experience strong southwesterly vertical wind shear 
due to a large upper-level trough over the central Atlantic.  The 
current intensity is held at 30 kt which is similar to the objective 
AIDT and DPRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS.  This may be a generous 
estimate, however, given the current appearance of the system.

The cyclone has not moved much with only a slightly south of 
westward drift noted, and the current motion estimate is 260/2 kt. 
It seems that the weakened system is now being steered primarily by 
the low-level flow.  Therefore the official track forecast is 
slower than the previous predictions.  This is similar to the 
motion implied by the latest ECMWF forecast fields which show a 
very weak system drifting generally northward for the next day or 
two.

Given the lack of convection, the environment of dry air, and 
the expectation of persistent shear, Joyce should soon degenerate 
into a remnant low.  The official intensity forecast is similar to 
the previous one.  The remnant cyclone should dissipate in 48-60 
hours if not sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 22.1N  49.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  30/1800Z 22.8N  49.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  01/0600Z 23.6N  49.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  01/1800Z 24.7N  49.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  02/0600Z 25.8N  49.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch