Official Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center

Jose (AL112023) DATA RELEASED: 8/31/2023 9:00:00 AM UTC

Copy of official data

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

Convection since the prior advisory has become markedly better 
organized on infrared and shortwave-IR imagery. Instead of the 
bursting pattern exhibited the prior two nights, there is more 
evidence of curved banding, which was noted on the GMI microwave 
pass last evening and a more recent AMSR2 pass at 0458 UTC. 
Subjective estimates form TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 kt, and the 
latest SATCON estimate was up to 37 kt. All these data suggest the 
depression has become tropical storm Jose, and 35 kt is the initial 
intensity this advisory.

Jose has certainly been in no hurry to move anywhere the last couple 
of days, but may finally be starting a more northward motion, now 
estimated at 350/5 kt. Part of the storm's previous lack of motion 
was related to competing steering influences from mid-level ridging 
both to its north and south, keeping the small cycle parked in 
place. However, The large circulation of Hurricane Franklin 
approaching from the west should break this steering stalemate. Jose 
is forecast to soon accelerate northward as it becomes swept up in 
the larger hurricane's circulation. The track guidance is in good 
agreement with this solution, and the track forecast was largely an 
update of the previous advisory. 

Despite Jose becoming a tropical storm, it does not appear likely 
to intensify very much more. While vertical wind shear is currently 
low, it should rapidly increase as Jose accelerates north and 
Franklin's outflow increases the upper-level flow from the opposite 
direction. Most of the guidance shows Jose getting absorbed by 
Franklin by the weekend, and the latest NHC intensity forecast 
shows this solution occuring in 48 hours.


INIT  31/0900Z 28.8N  52.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  31/1800Z 30.3N  52.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  01/0600Z 32.6N  52.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  01/1800Z 36.4N  51.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

Forecaster Papin