Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092023
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is becoming better
organized.  Deep convection has been increasing near the mid-level
center, with the apparent low-level center displaced on the south
side of the convective mass.  The latest satellite classifications
still support an intensity of 30 kt, and an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to be in the area overnight for a
more detailed look at the wind field.

The depression is moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest at 16
kt on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge located over the
central United States.   This general motion should continue through
landfall tomorrow by midday.  The guidance has shifted a bit to the
north on this cycle, and the NHC forecast follows the recent 
trends. 

The system should strengthen soonb through landfall over the warm 
Gulf waters, though its time is limited.  It should be noted that
the cyclone moves inland between the 12- and 24-hour points so it is
possible that the system gets a little stronger than the forecast
intensity values below.  No noteworthy changes were required to the
last NHC wind speed forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Nine is expected across 
South Texas through early Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash 
and urban flooding. Across portions of northern Coahuila and 
northern Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible 
landslides in mountainous terrain is expected Tuesday through 
Wednesday.

2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast
tonight through Tuesday evening.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area beginning early Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 25.7N  93.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  22/1200Z 26.3N  96.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  23/0000Z 27.3N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
36H  23/1200Z 29.0N 103.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake