Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
500 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024

Gordon's center remains well displaced to the west of the area of 
deep convection. There recently was a convective burst near the 
center, and it remains to be seen if this is an intermittent pulse 
of convection or if the system will try to maintain convection. 
Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have decreased between 25 
to 35 kt. Using an average of these estimates, the intensity for 
this advisory is set to 30 kt, and Gordon has weakened into a 
tropical depression.

The cyclone continues to move west-southwestward, with a current 
motion estimate of 260/7 kt.  Gordon is being steered by a mid-level 
ridge to to the north.  The steering flow is expected to weaken as 
the ridge to the north becomes less pronounced, which should result 
in Gordon slowing down considerably. By late in the forecast period, 
a trough develops to the west-northwest of Gordon. This is expected 
to cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the north-northeast.  
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, nudged 
slightly to the right and a little faster towards the end of the 
period near the HFIP corrected consensus.

Gordon continues to experience strong westerly vertical wind shear 
and is within fairly stable airmass. It still remains possible that 
the the system could degenerate into a remnant low, as it struggles 
to produce convection. The environmental conditions improve towards 
the end of the forecast period that depicts that the system could 
re-strengthen. The current intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous forecast but does show Gordon becoming a tropical storm 
again towards the end of the period, if it can survive the next few 
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 19.2N  46.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  16/0600Z 19.1N  47.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  16/1800Z 19.0N  48.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  17/0600Z 19.0N  49.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  17/1800Z 19.2N  49.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  18/0600Z 19.5N  49.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  18/1800Z 20.0N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  19/1800Z 22.2N  49.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 24.9N  47.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly