Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072023
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

Emily continues to be in a highly sheared environment this evening, 
with convection displaced well to the northeast of the exposed 
low-level center. A recent scatterometer (ASCAT-B) had a partial 
pass over the system that showed winds around 40 
kt. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB and objective 
satellite CIMMS ADT and AiDT were slightly lower with this 
advisory. Given the satellite estimates and scatterometer 
wind data, the intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory.

Emily likely reached peak intensity earlier this afternoon, with a 
gradual weakening trend expected over the next day or so. The 
system is in a highly sheared environment, with shear forecast to 
increase even more over the next 24 to 36 hours. Models are in 
fairly good agreement that the system will become a remnant low in 
a couple of days. While the NHC forecast has the system remaining a 
remnant low throughout the period, there is some guidance, including 
the ECMWF, that dissipate the system earlier. The intensity 
guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and the forecast lies 
near the corrected model consensus aids.

The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 8 kt, and a general
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next 
couple of days while the storm moves along the southwestern 
periphery of the ridge.  After that time, a turn to the north is 
forecast while the storm moves around the west side of the ridge 
and toward a weakness.  The new track forecast is similar to the 
previous, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope closest 
to model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 20.5N  40.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  21/1200Z 20.9N  41.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  22/0000Z 21.5N  43.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  22/1200Z 22.4N  45.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  23/0000Z 23.6N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  23/1200Z 25.3N  48.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  24/0000Z 27.5N  49.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  25/0000Z 32.9N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/0000Z 39.0N  49.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown