Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
500 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2023

Gert appears to be maintaining its intensity for the time being, in 
spite of the presence of strong northeasterly vertical wind shear.  
The system has been producing a blob of deep convection to the 
southwest of the estimated center and the low-level circulation is 
still fairly well defined on GOES-16 proxy-vis imagery.  The 
current intensity is kept at 50 kt for this advisory in agreement 
with an Advanced Dvorak Technique estimate from UW-CIMSS.

The tropical storm is accelerating north-northeastward at a faster 
forward speed of around 10 kt.  A north-northeastward to 
northward motion with a continued increase in forward speed is 
likely during the next day or so as Gert becomes entrained into the 
eastern portion of the much larger circulation of Post-Tropical 
Cyclone Idalia.  Global model guidance shows the system becoming 
absorbed by Idalia and dissipating in 24 hours or so.  The official 
forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 29.9N  52.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  03/1800Z 32.2N  52.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  04/0600Z 36.3N  52.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch