Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

Gert is one tough little cyclone.  Satellite images indicate that 
deep convection continues near the center of the storm, despite 
northerly shear, and microwave data from this morning shows healthy 
banding structure.  A scatterometer pass from 1259 UTC shows peak 
winds of just over 40 kt, which supports at least 45 kt due to the 
small size of Gert.  The initial wind speed is raised to 45 kt, 
which also matches the latest TAFB Dvorak value and the UW-CIMSS 
SATCON estimate.

The storm is moving a bit faster to the north-northeast this 
morning, roughly 3 kt, as it begins to feel the steering from 
Idalia to the west-northwest.  Gert should accelerate north- 
northeastward later today and turn northward tomorrow around the 
eastern side of Idalia's large circulation.  All of the global 
models open Gert up into a trough of low pressure by 48 h due to 
rapidly increasing forward motion around Idalia, and the official 
forecast follows suit.  Little change in strength is expected with 
Gert before it dissipates, although this system has been more 
resilient to shear than most small tropical cyclones.  No 
significant changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, 
with a small upward adjustment to the intensity forecast based on 
the initial value. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 27.8N  54.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  03/0000Z 28.5N  53.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  03/1200Z 30.1N  52.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  04/0000Z 32.6N  51.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake