Official Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center

Don (AL052023) DATA RELEASED: 7/16/2023 3:00:00 AM UTC

Copy of official data

Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
1100 PM AST Sat Jul 15 2023

Don continues to sporadically produce bursts of convection and cling 
to subtropical cyclone status.  The storm currently consists of an 
exposed low-level center with a limited area of thunderstorms in the 
eastern portion of the circulation.  The initial intensity remains 
at 35 kt based on recent data from a scatterometer overpass 

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are generally not conducive for 
development.  Sea surface temperatures are between 23-24 degrees 
Celsius along the forecast track for the next few days. Dry 
mid-level humidities from subsiding air are also expected to be 
quite low.  However, isolated convection driven by cool upper-level 
temperatures could still continue for the next several days 
preventing Don from becoming a post-tropical cyclone.  There is also 
a chance the storm could slightly re-strengthen in the long-term 
forecast when it moves southward.  The official forecast is 
unchanged from the the previous prediction.

The storm is moving northward at about 9 kt.  The reasoning behind 
the track forecast has also not changed.  A strong subtropical ridge 
is expected to steer Don eastward by late tomorrow and southward on 
Tuesday.  In the 4-5 day forecast period, Don will be in a region 
with weak steering currents and likely linger in the same general 
area.  The updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the last 
advisory forecast and the consensus aids.


INIT  16/0300Z 38.2N  48.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  16/1200Z 39.1N  48.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  17/0000Z 39.7N  46.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  17/1200Z 39.3N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  18/0000Z 38.2N  42.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  18/1200Z 36.6N  41.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  19/0000Z 35.1N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  20/0000Z 33.5N  41.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 34.2N  42.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

Forecaster Bucci