Official Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center

Don (AL052023) DATA RELEASED: 7/15/2023 9:00:00 PM UTC

Copy of official data

Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
500 PM AST Sat Jul 15 2023

Don has a poor appearance on the latest satellite imagery, with only 
weak banding noted on the southeastern side of the circulation, 
mostly removed from the center, and only moderate convection.  With 
the overall degradation in the satellite presentation, the current 
wind speed is lowered slightly to 35 kt, consistent with the latest 
TAFB classification.

The environment near Don is pretty harsh during the next few days, 
with waters of 23-24C, dry air aloft, and bouts of shear.  While 
this should be counteracted by cool upper-level conditions, which 
promote deep convection over lower sea-surface temperatures than 
typical, most factors suggest some weakening next week.  Thus the 
latest forecast of Don is decreased from the previous one, leaning 
closer to the global model solutions that generally show the system 
becoming a depression in a day or so.  While there's a chance of 
re-strengthening at long range, it is probably just as likely that 
the system will degenerate into a remnant low before that point.

Don continues wobbling, but appears to have started its northward 
motion at about 8 kt.  The storm should turn eastward by late 
tomorrow and southward on Tuesday while it moves around the  
northern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge.  Don will probably 
enter a weaker steering flow near midweek, with little net motion 
expected for a day or so.  Only minor eastward adjustments were 
required to the NHC track forecast at long range as much of the 
guidance come in close to the previous prediction. For such an 
unusual July track, the guidance is in fairly good agreement, and 
the NHC track is just west of the model consensus by day 5.


INIT  15/2100Z 37.3N  48.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  16/0600Z 38.3N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  16/1800Z 39.3N  47.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  17/0600Z 39.4N  45.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  17/1800Z 38.6N  43.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  18/0600Z 37.1N  41.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  18/1800Z 35.4N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  19/1800Z 33.2N  41.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 33.5N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

Forecaster Blake