Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
500 AM AST Sat Jul 15 2023

Don appears to be holding steady in strength.  The storm is 
producing bands of deep convection mostly on its north side, with 
dry air continuing to wrap into the southern half of the 
circulation.  The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 35 
to 45 kt, and based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 
40 kt.

Although the storm has been wobbling around, the general motion has 
been northward at about 8 kt during the past 12-24 hours, and that 
should continue through tonight.  On Sunday, a turn to the east is 
expected as Don moves in the flow on the north side of a subtropical 
ridge over the eastern Atlantic.  The storm will likely turn 
southeastward beginning late Monday as a trough amplifies over the 
northeastern Atlantic and western Europe.  However, the steering 
currents could collapse during the middle part of next week causing 
the storm to stall.  Despite the relatively complex steering flow, 
the models are in general agreement and have not changed much during 
the past several cycles.  The NHC track forecast is a little to the 
north of the previous one in the short term, but most of the 
changes were minor.  This track is close to the various consensus 
models.

Don is over relatively cool 25 degree C waters and the sea surface 
temperatures are expected to decrease another couple of degrees 
along the forecast track during the next 2 days or so.  These 
generally unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with dry air 
surrounding the system should cause Don to either hold steady or 
lose some strength during the next 2 or 3 days.  In fact, it is 
possible that Don becomes a post-tropical cyclone at some point 
during that time period.  However, beyond a few days, the storm is 
expected to move back over slightly warmer waters, which could allow 
Don to restrengthen if manages to survive that long.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and near the 
middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 35.7N  47.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  15/1800Z 36.9N  48.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  16/0600Z 38.2N  48.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  16/1800Z 39.1N  47.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  17/0600Z 39.3N  45.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  17/1800Z 38.7N  43.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  18/0600Z 37.3N  41.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  19/0600Z 34.3N  41.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 33.2N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi