Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 14 2023

Don continues to display characteristics of a sheared subtropical 
storm.  Infrared satellite imagery shows remnants of earlier 
convective activity are offset to the north and east of the 
circulation and a single burst of fresh convection has formed just 
east of the exposed low-level center.  Subjective satellite estimate 
from TAFB still classify Don as a ST2.5, and the initial intensity 
remains at 40 kt.

The cyclone has turned northward after a brief wobble westward.  
The motion, averaged over 12 hours, is northward at 8 kt.  The 
track forecast reasoning remains the same.  A ridge centered over 
the eastern Atlantic will shift westward over the next few days.  
Don will move around the periphery of the ridge, continuing 
northward, and then turning eastward and southward by the end of the 
forecast period.  The updated track forecast has moved back east of 
the previous prediction, largely due to the initial position, and 
is close to the consensus model aids.

Don has just moved over waters cooler than 25 degrees Celsius and 
continues to entrain dry mid-level air.  Along the forecast track, 
sea surface temperatures are forecast to decrease over the next few 
days as the cyclone moves northward.  Simulated satellite imagery 
from global models suggests the convective organization should 
degrade during this timeframe, though some models show Don 
restrengthening with the southward bringing it over warmer waters.  
The official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous 
advisory and maintains Don's subtropical classification through the 
forecast period.  However, should the storm continue to lose 
convective coverage and organization it could become post-tropical 
at any time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 34.7N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  15/1200Z 35.8N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  16/0000Z 37.1N  47.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  16/1200Z 38.4N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  17/0000Z 38.8N  45.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  17/1200Z 38.7N  43.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  18/0000Z 37.5N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  19/0000Z 34.5N  39.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 33.4N  39.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci