Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
500 PM AST Sun Jul 23 2023

Tropical Storm Don is moving northeastward this afternoon over the 
North Atlantic's cooler sea surface temperatures, and deep 
convection is starting to wane. The convective band from earlier 
this morning has become more fragmented and not as well defined. 
Visible satellite and a microwave AMSR2 pass earlier however, still 
showed that Don has a compact low-level center, and a scatterometer 
ASCAT-B pass showed winds of 48-50 kt in the southeast quadrant. 
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have also started to 
trend downward with this advisory cycle. Given the ASCAT-B pass and 
the subjective satellite estimates, the initial intensity for this 
advisory is lowered to 50 kt.

Don is starting to lose its overall convective pattern and should 
begin to rapidly weaken tonight and tomorrow. Available global 
model guidance suggest that Don should lose any remaining deep 
convection within the next 18 to 24 hours and become a post-tropical 
cyclone at that time.  The intensity forecast remains similar to 
the previous forecast, with Don dissipating in about 48 hours.

The system is moving to the northeast at 15 kt.  Don will continue 
to move to the northeast, with a slight increase in forward speed 
the remainder of today, before turning to the east-northeast 
tomorrow due to the steering flow around the northern side of the 
subtropical ridge.  Guidance remains tightly clustered, and there 
was very little change to the forecast this cycle.

The storm is moving up the list of longest-lasting tropical cyclones
on record for July (including subtropical stages). Preliminary,
Don is tied for 10th, and the cyclone could make the top 5
longest-lasting for July if it lasts through early Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 45.2N  46.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  24/0600Z 46.6N  44.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  24/1800Z 47.9N  39.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H  25/0600Z 48.8N  34.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch