Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
500 AM AST Sat Jul 22 2023

Don continues to generate curved convective bands around the center, 
although the overall organization has not changed much during the 
past several hours.  There has also been little change in the 
various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates, so 
the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 50 kt.

The initial motion is 315/12 kt as Don is located on the 
southwestern side of a mid-level ridge situated over the north- 
central Atlantic.  A mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Canada 
is expected to move eastward and erode the western portion of the 
ridge during the next 24-48 h. This should allow Don to turn 
northward and then recurve northeastward into the westerlies. Based 
on the tightly clustered track guidance, the new NHC forecast is 
similar to, but a little faster than, the previous forecast.

Don could strengthen a little during the next 12 h as it passes over 
the Gulf Stream.  After that, the cyclone should move over much 
colder water and into increasing vertical wind shear.  This 
combination should cause weakening, and the new intensity forecast 
calls for the system to become post-tropical between 36-48 h and 
degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h.  The new intensity forecast 
has some minor adjustments from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 38.3N  49.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  22/1800Z 39.9N  50.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  23/0600Z 42.3N  49.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  23/1800Z 44.6N  47.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  24/0600Z 46.5N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H  24/1800Z 47.8N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  25/0600Z 48.7N  36.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven