Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

A recent SSMIS microwave pass depicted that Leslie is continuing to
become better organized and is trying to develop an inner core.
Burst of deep convection have continued to develop mainly on the
southern semi-circle as the system is still battling some deep-layer
northeasterly wind shear. Given the improved convective pattern the
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have increased this cycle with
a data-T 3.5/55 kt, from both TAFB and SAB. Using these estimates
and the improving structure, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt
for this advisory.

Leslie is moving slowly westward at 280/5 kt, along the southern
periphery of the subtropical ridge.  The ridge will continue to
steer Leslie, with a gradual turn west-northwestward then
northwestward as it rounds the ridge. Leslie should continue
north-westward with a slight increase in forward speed through the
end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very near the
previous forecast track, which lies between the HCCA HFIP-corrected
consensus and simple consensus aids.

Northeasterly shear should begin to decrease later today as
Hurricane Kirk continues to pull further away from the system.
Strengthening is then forecast over the next 2-3 days with warm sea
surface temperatures, upper-level divergence and low deep-layer
shear. The intensity guidance, especially the peak has come down
this cycle, and that is a combination of a few factors. In about 3
days, Leslie is forecast to move over the cold wake of Kirk, and
encounter increasing dry air, mid-level shear, and the upper-level
pattern also become a little less diffluent. This should cause the
intensity of Leslie to plateau through the end of the forecast
period. The NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and is
slightly lower than the previous forecast, but lies near the higher
end of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 10.0N  33.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  05/0000Z 10.3N  34.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  05/1200Z 10.8N  35.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  06/0000Z 11.4N  36.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  06/1200Z 12.4N  37.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
60H  07/0000Z 13.8N  39.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  07/1200Z 15.3N  40.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  08/1200Z 18.2N  44.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 20.9N  47.7W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly