Hurricane Milton Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Milton continues to produce a central dense overcast with 
cloud tops colder than -80C, and since the last advisory a small 
ragged eye has been present. Satellite intensity estimates have 
increased to the 80-100 kt range, and based on this the initial 
intensity is raised to 85 kt.

The center has nudged a little southward over the past several 
hours, and the initial motion is now 105/7 kt.  Milton is moving 
within the southern portion of a broad mid-level trough over the 
Gulf of Mexico, and is also being influenced by the flow on the 
southwest side of a low pressure area over the eastern Gulf of 
Mexico.  The global models suggest the mid-level trough and surface 
low should move eastward into the Atlantic during the next 48 h, 
with a second mid- to upper-level trough digging into the 
northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  This evolution should cause Milton to 
move east-southeastward to eastward for the next 36 h or so, 
followed by a turn toward the northeast at a faster forward speed. 
The track guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will 
cross the Florida Peninsula, but there remains significant 
differences in both the location and timing of landfall. The UKMET 
is fastest and farthest to the east, the GFS is slower and much 
farther north, and the Canadian being the slowest and keeping the 
storm offshore more than 24 h longer than the other models.  The 
new forecast track calls for the center to reach the Florida west 
coast between 60-72 h in best agreement with the ECMWF and the 
multimodel consensus. It should be noted that the average NHC track 
error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus
on the exact track.  After landfall, Milton should turn more 
eastward as it becomes extratropical.

For the first 36 h or so, Milton should be on an environment of 
moderate shear over warm sea surface temperatures.  Thus, steady to 
rapid intensification is expected, and the intensity forecast 
continues to call for the cyclone to become a category 4 hurricane. 
After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable 
environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore, 
some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the 
Florida Gulf coast.  However, the system is still likely to be a 
large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with 
life-threatening hazards along portions of the the coastline.  After 
landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical transition, 
which should be complete by 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the northern 
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.  A dangerous storm surge with 
damaging waves is also likely along portions of the coast of the 
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. 

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and 
damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida 
Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  Storm Surge 
and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west 
coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should 
follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to 
do so. 

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today 
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to 
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This 
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and 
areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major 
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 22.1N  92.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  07/1800Z 21.9N  91.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  08/0600Z 22.2N  89.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  08/1800Z 23.1N  87.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
48H  09/0600Z 24.7N  85.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
60H  09/1800Z 26.4N  83.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  10/0600Z 28.1N  81.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
96H  11/0600Z 30.0N  75.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/0600Z 31.5N  68.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven