Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

Data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters this morning
indicate that Beryl continues to rapidly intensify.  Based on the
data collected, the minimum pressure has fallen significantly to
964 mb and the maximum wind speed is now up to 105 kt.  Although
Beryl is still on the small side, the wind field is a little larger
than previously noted with the tropical-storm-force winds estimated 
to extend up to 100 n mi from the center and hurricane-force winds 
up to 25 n mi from the eye.  Satellite images show that Beryl has a 
classic major hurricane pattern with a clear and circular eye and 
symmetric convective pattern surrounding it.

Beryl continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt steered by a 
strong subtropical ridge to its north.  The hurricane has been 
moving a little to the south of most of the model predictions over 
the past day or two.  A continued quick west to west-northwest 
motion is forecast during the next several days as the ridge remains 
the primary steering feature.  This should take the core of Beryl 
across the Windward Islands Monday morning and then across much the 
Caribbean Sea during the following few days.  The NHC track forecast 
has been nudged to the south of the previous prediction and lies 
close to the various consensus aids.

The major hurricane has rapidly intensified since it formed a
couple of days ago, and given the continued conducive environmental
conditions and compact inner core, it will likely strengthen some
more through tonight.  Beryl is expected to be a very dangerous
category 4 hurricane when it moves through Windward Islands.  The
models show a gradual increase in shear when the system moves
across the Caribbean Sea and that should cause Beryl's intensity to
level off and then gradually weaken.  However, Beryl is expected to
remain a significant hurricane through the next 5 days.  The
intensity forecast is a little above the previous one and in good
agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4 
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands. This is a very 
dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to 
local government and emergency management officials for any 
preparedness and/or evacuation orders. All preparations should be 
rushed to completion today.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a 
life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected 
when Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the 
highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and 
Grenada beginning early Monday morning.  Hurricane Warnings are in 
effect for much of the Windward Islands.

3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the
Windward Islands through Monday.

4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves 
across the Caribbean Sea later this week and interests in 
Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the remainder of the 
northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress, There is large 
forecast uncertainty  at days 4 and 5 and users should not focus on 
the specific details of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 10.7N  54.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  01/0000Z 11.2N  57.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  01/1200Z 12.1N  60.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
36H  02/0000Z 13.3N  64.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  02/1200Z 14.6N  68.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
60H  03/0000Z 15.6N  72.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  03/1200Z 16.4N  75.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  04/1200Z 17.8N  82.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 19.2N  88.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi