Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

Beryl's structure is quickly evolving this morning as it undergoes 
rapid intensification.  Recent GOES 1-minute satellite imagery 
shows the development of an eye, with cooling cloud tops in the 
eyewall and a warming eye.  The initial wind speed is set to 85 kt, 
closest to the CIMSS Satellite Consensus Estimates, and could be 
too low.  Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft are en route to get a 
better estimate of the initial intensity for the next forecast 
advisory.

Now that the core has solidified based on a recent AMSR2 microwave 
pass, continued rapid intensification looks likely over the next 24 
hours while Beryl is over SSTs near 29C and within shear less than 
10 kt.  There's no obvious reason it shouldn't become a very 
powerful hurricane before impacting the Windward Islands.  Thus, 
the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to explicitly show 
rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely 
dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it moves across the Windward 
islands by tomorrow night. Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, 
increasing shear will likely cause the hurricane to level off in 
intensity, then weaken through about midweek.  The intensity 
forecast is similar to the previous one, but the NHC forecast is 
raised at day 5 as more models are showing lessening shear in the 
western Caribbean.

The hurricane is moving slightly north of due west, estimated at
280/18 kt.  There aren't any significant track changes from the
previous advisory with an extensive mid-level ridge north of Beryl
expected to steer the system westward or west-northwestward for
several days.  Model guidance remains in tight agreement on the
forecast track, and the NHC track prediction is basically an update
of the previous one.

This is a very serious situation developing for the Windward 
Islands, so please listen to your local government and emergency 
management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands early Monday, 
bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening 
storm surge.  Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the 
Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the
Windward Islands tonight and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system.  Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details
of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 10.7N  53.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  30/1800Z 11.1N  55.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  01/0600Z 11.8N  59.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  01/1800Z 12.9N  62.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  02/0600Z 14.1N  66.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
60H  02/1800Z 15.4N  70.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  03/0600Z 16.3N  74.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  04/0600Z 17.8N  80.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 19.1N  87.1W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake