Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Satellite images indicate Kirk is an asymmetric tropical storm with 
curved bands of deep convection primarily over the eastern half of 
the circulation. Recent scatterometer winds indicate the center of 
Kirk is slightly north of previous estimates, with a large 
tropical-storm-force wind field over the eastern semicircle. Based 
on the scatterometer data and a blend of the various satellite 
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt.

Kirk is now moving west-northwestward (285/10 kt). This general 
motion should continue for the next couple of days while Kirk moves 
around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge 
over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn toward the northwest is 
anticipated during the middle part of the week, followed by a 
recurvature to the north-northwest and north over the central 
Atlantic by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The track guidance 
remains in very good agreement, and only minor adjustments were made 
to the NHC track forecast. 

Very warm waters, weak vertical wind shear, and a moist environment 
should support steady to perhaps rapid strengthening of Kirk during 
the next several days. The tropical storm is currently broad and 
lacks an inner core, but the forecast shows a faster rate of 
strengthening by midweek as Kirk is expected to become better 
organized within this favorable environment. No significant changes 
were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which lies on the higher 
side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the 
statistical-dynamical aids and some of the regional hurricane 
models. The models agree that the wind field of Kirk will grow quite 
large later in the period as the cyclone gains latitude over open 
waters. Ultimately, Kirk is forecast to become a large, major 
hurricane over the open central Atlantic later this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 14.4N  36.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  01/1200Z 14.8N  38.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  02/0000Z 15.8N  40.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  02/1200Z 16.8N  42.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  03/0000Z 18.0N  43.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
60H  03/1200Z 19.2N  45.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  04/0000Z 20.4N  46.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
96H  05/0000Z 23.3N  48.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 27.5N  49.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart