Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112024
500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

Joyce is still feeling the effects of the southerly deep-layer wind 
shear.   Periodic bursts of convection have been forming just 
north of the center and quickly moving poleward, leaving the 
low-level circulation partially exposed all afternoon.  Objective 
and subjective satellite intensity estimates have been coming down, 
and the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this 
advisory. 

Dry mid-level humidities and moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear 
should induce gradual weakening over the next few days.  Joyce is 
expected to become a tropical depression on Monday, a 
post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday, and dissipated on Wednesday.  
The official intensity forecast has been adjusted downward slightly 
due to the lower initial intensity.

The motion of the storm is now west-northwestward at 8 kt.  A 
west-northwestward to northwestward motion, with a slower forward 
speed is expected for the next day or so as Joyce is steered by a 
narrow subtropical ridge to the north.  On Monday, Joyce should 
turn more north-northwestward to northward towards a weakens in the 
ridge caused by a deepening trough over the northern Atlantic.  
More of the model guidance is showing Joyce, or its remnants, being 
picked up by the trough and the track guidance envelope has shifted 
north and east.  The latest NHC track forecast has shifted north 
and east of the previous prediction and lies on the western side of 
the various consensus aids.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 20.3N  46.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  29/0600Z 20.9N  47.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  29/1800Z 21.7N  48.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  30/0600Z 22.3N  49.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  30/1800Z 22.9N  49.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  01/0600Z 23.5N  49.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  01/1800Z 24.3N  49.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci