Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

Beryl continues to strengthen rapidly this evening. Cold convective 
cloud tops between -70 to -80 C are now wrapping fully around the 
center after earlier being confined to its southern semicircle. 
After the prior advisory, a late arriving SSMIS microwave pass 
revealed a small closed eyewall now exists. The latest subjective 
and objective intensity estimates range between 65 to 80 kt and 
based on the continued improved structure on satellite imagery, the 
intensity is set at 75 kt, towards the upper end of those estimates. 
As earlier mentioned, both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunters will investigate Beryl tomorrow morning, which will provide 
our first in-situ data to assess the hurricane. 

Beryl has maintained a just north of due west fast motion this 
evening, estimated at 280/17 kt. An extensive mid-level ridge 
remains positioned poleward of the hurricane, and Beryl should 
maintain a westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar speed 
over the next couple of days. This track will take the hurricane 
over the Windward Islands overnight on Sunday into Monday. A subtle 
weakness in this ridging in the 24-48 hour period should help the 
hurricane gain a bit of latitude before the ridge builds back in 
over the southeastern U.S. by the middle of next week, likely 
resulting in a turn back more westward by the end of the forecast 
period. The NHC forecast track is just a touch left and slower 
compared to the prior advisory, but remains very close to a blend of 
the consensus aids HCCA and TVCN.

Unfortunately Beryl has all the ingredients favorable for continued 
rapid intensification in the short-term. The light to moderate 
easterly shear that had been affecting the system is subsiding, 
while the hurricane remains embedded in a large area of deep-layer 
moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The small and 
well-organized inner core likely means the hurricane should take 
full advantage of these pristine conditions, and both the GFS and 
ECMWF versions of SHIPS-RII show rapid intensification indices 7 to 
10 times above climatology. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast 
will explicitly show rapid intensification over the next day, making 
Beryl a very dangerous Category 3 hurricane before it moves across 
the Windward islands by tomorrow night. Once Beryl enters the 
Caribbean, there could be a marked increase in westerly vertical 
wind shear as a strong easterly low-level jet, common for this time 
of year in the eastern Caribbean Sea, will keep Beryl moving quickly 
westward against lighter upper-level upper-level easterlies 
partially eroded by a deep-layer trough off the Eastern Seaboard. 
Thus some weakening is forecast after 48 hours as Beryl moves 
further into the Caribbean. The NHC intensity forecast remains close 
to the reliable consensus aids and now shows a peak intensity of 110 
kt in 36 hours, though a few of the regional-hurricane models do 
peak Beryl stronger than shown here.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it 
reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing 
destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge.  
Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the
Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the 
progress of this system.  Users are reminded that there is large 
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details 
of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 10.4N  51.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  30/1200Z 10.8N  53.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  01/0000Z 11.5N  57.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  01/1200Z 12.3N  60.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  02/0000Z 13.4N  64.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
60H  02/1200Z 14.6N  67.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  03/0000Z 15.6N  71.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  04/0000Z 17.0N  78.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 18.5N  85.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin