Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Milton is strengthening.
A large burst of convection is occurring in the northern semicircle 
of the storm, with lots of expanding outflow.  The last fix from the
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed a pressure down to 991 mb
with maximum 500m low-level winds of about 65 kt.  These winds 
reduce down to the surface to about 55 kt, and this value will be 
the initial intensity.

The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the
previously anticipated and has been moving east-southeastward or
105/5 kt.  Milton is forecast to move a little south of due east
today in westerly flow from a shortwave trough over the northern
Gulf of Mexico.  The storm should then turn northeastward and
accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula.  
As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been 
a southward change to most of the guidance this morning.  The new 
NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early
on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the
guidance trend continues.  The Mexican government has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
as a result of the forecast change. It should be noted that the
average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users
should not focus on the exact track.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed 
on the last center fix, suggesting that this system is ready to 
intensify quickly.  Given the track over the very deep warm waters 
of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days, 
rapid intensification is explicitly forecast, and the new NHC 
prediction could still be conservative over the central Gulf of 
Mexico.  The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as 
Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a 
notable increase in shear.  While some weakening is anticipated, 
the shear could help transition Milton to be a large hurricane at 
landfall, with impacts spread out over a big area. Regardless of 
the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful 
hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions 
of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents 
there should closely monitor this system and listen to local 
officials.


Key Messages:

1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward 
to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane 
when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. 
Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as 
there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and 
intensity of Milton. 

2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location 
of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of 
life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the 
west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early 
Wednesday.  Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches could be issued later 
today or tonight.  Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow 
any advice given by local officials and check back for updates to 
the forecast. 

3.  Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today 
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly 
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday 
night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal 
flooding, along with the potential of moderate to major river 
flooding. 

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Monday across 
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a 
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 22.4N  94.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  07/0000Z 22.2N  93.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  07/1200Z 22.2N  92.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  08/0000Z 22.5N  90.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  08/1200Z 23.5N  88.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
60H  09/0000Z 24.7N  86.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  09/1200Z 26.5N  84.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  10/1200Z 29.0N  79.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 31.0N  72.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake