Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Kirk is continuing to become better organized this afternoon on 
satellite imagery with a large burst of convection on the northern 
side of the center and an expanding outflow pattern aloft.  All 
intensity estimates are rising, and the initial wind speed is set to 
50 kt, near the CIMSS-AiDT and DMINT values.

The motion of Kirk is about the same as before, westward at about 
10 kt.  Very little change was made to the track forecast, with 
below-average model spread across the entire period due to
well-defined steering flow from the subtropical high over the 
east-central Atlantic.  Kirk should gradually move more 
west-northwestward by tomorrow and turn northwestward midweek, with 
a north-northwest turn likely by the end of the forecast period. 

Environmental conditions are forecast to be quite conducive for
strengthening during the next several days, with warm waters, a
moist mid-level environment and low shear in forecast.  Rapid 
intensification remains a notable possibility if this system can 
close off its inner core, though the latest microwave data shows 
that any formative eyewall is still open.  Later on, the exact peak 
intensity is a bit of a mystery, since sometimes these favorable 
conditions can result in most of the energy going toward producing a 
large, but not necessarily stronger hurricane.  Regardless, all 
signs point to Kirk becoming quite a large and powerful hurricane, 
possibly category 4, later this week and remaining intense for days. 
The new forecast is similar to the previous one and is between the 
dynamical model consensus and the statistical-dynamical models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 13.6N  35.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  01/0600Z 13.9N  37.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  01/1800Z 14.5N  39.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  02/0600Z 15.6N  41.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  02/1800Z 16.8N  42.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
60H  03/0600Z 18.0N  44.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  03/1800Z 19.3N  45.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
96H  04/1800Z 21.8N  47.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 25.5N  49.5W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake