Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

Beryl continues to rapidly strengthen, and has now become a 
hurricane.  Satellite images show an expanding central dense 
overcast feature, and recent microwave images indicate that a 
partial eyewall has formed.  This intensity estimate is in agreement 
with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB of T4.0/65 kt.  Beryl is a 
compact tropical cyclone, with its tropical-storm-force winds 
estimated to extend up to 50 n mi from the center.  Both the NOAA 
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 
Beryl tomorrow, and the data they collect will be very helpful in 
assessing the system's structure and intensity.

Beryl continues to wobble around, but the general motion has been
westward at a quick 19 kt.  A strong subtropical ridge should keep
the hurricane moving generally westward at only a slightly slower
forward speed for the next couple of days.  This motion should take
Beryl across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.  A
weakness in the ridge could cause Beryl to gain a little more
latitude during the early and middle portions of next week, before
turning back slightly to the left as another ridge builds to the
northwest of Beryl.  The NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one and in fairly good agreement with the various consensus
models.

Now that Beryl has developed a compact inner core, it seems likely
that it will continue to intensify quickly since the hurricane will
remain in near ideal environmental conditions during the next day or
two.  The NHC intensity forecast is again nudged upward in the short
term, and shows Beryl becoming a dangerous major hurricane prior to
it reaching the Windward Islands.  Beyond a couple of days, when
Beryl is moving across the Caribbean, an increase in shear should
end the strengthening trend and induce some weakening toward the end
of the forecast period.  The intensity models are coming into better
agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is roughly near 
the middle of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it 
reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday,
bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening
storm surge.  Hurricane Watch and Warnings are in effect for much
of the Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the
Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system.  Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
details of the track or intensity forecast. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 10.1N  49.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  30/0600Z 10.6N  51.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  30/1800Z 11.3N  55.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  01/0600Z 12.0N  58.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  01/1800Z 13.1N  62.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
60H  02/0600Z 14.3N  66.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  02/1800Z 15.5N  69.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  03/1800Z 17.3N  77.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 18.7N  83.3W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi