Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

Leslie is becoming better organized this morning. An earlier 
microwave pass depicted a more well-defined center with better 
defined curved banding features. Recent satellite-derived wind data 
depicts max winds around 38-40 kt. Subjective and objective Dvorak 
satellite intensity estimates range from 35-40 kt. Given the 
improved organizational structure and satellite trends will lean 
towards the higher end of these estimates with an initial intensity 
of 40 kt.

The tropical storm is moving slowly westward at an estimated motion 
of 260/4 kt to the south of a subtropical ridge over the eastern 
Atlantic. As we move into Friday and this weekend the system will 
gradually turn west-northwestward then northwestward increasing its
forward speed rounding the subtropical ridge. Model guidance is 
tightly clustered and in fairly good agreement. The NHC track 
forecast is very near the previous, and lies near the simple and 
corrected consensus aids.

The system is still feeling some of the effects of the outflow of 
Kirk, however as Kirk begins to move further away shear is forecast 
to weaken. The oceanic and atmospheric environmental conditions are 
conducive for steady strengthening with warm sea surface temperature 
and plenty of moisture. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the 
upper-end of the guidance envelope given the improved structure and 
favorable environment, and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus. 
Towards the end of the forecast period the intensity forecast 
plateaus given the system is forecast to track behind the cold wake 
of Hurricane Kirk.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 10.1N  30.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  04/0000Z 10.1N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  04/1200Z 10.4N  32.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  05/0000Z 10.8N  34.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  05/1200Z 11.4N  35.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  06/0000Z 12.3N  37.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  06/1200Z 13.3N  38.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  07/1200Z 15.9N  41.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 18.6N  44.6W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams