Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Beryl continues to weaken.  Satellite images show that the 
low- and mid-level centers have decoupled, and NWS Doppler wind 
velocities are decreasing.  The initial wind speed is set to 40 kt, 
in accordance with radar data and surface observations.  Beryl 
should gradually lose strength and is expected to become a tropical 
depression tonight or overnight.  The intensity forecast is about 
the same as the last one, except a little stronger in the 
post-tropical phase near the Great Lakes due to recent global model 
wind forecasts of some extratropical energy keeping the winds more 
stead at long range.

The storm is moving north-northeastward, faster at 14 kt.  Beryl 
should turn northeastward overnight and accelerate across the 
lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley during the next couple 
of days until dissipation occurs between 72-96 h.  The new forecast 
track is similar to the previous forecast, though a bit to the 
west. It is possible this could be a little fast if recent model 
solutions of more phasing with a mid-latitude trough occurs.

Key Messages:

1. Water levels will remain elevated along Galveston Bay and along 
the coast of Texas from Port OG��Connor to Sabine Pass.

2. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected through 
tonight across portions of the Upper Texas Coast and across eastern 
Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also expected.

3. Use caution after Beryl passes as deadly hazards remain 
including downed power lines and flooded areas.  Ensure generators 
are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning.  
Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink 
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. 

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions 
through Tuesday across portions of the northern and western Gulf 
coasts. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of 
lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 31.3N  95.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
12H  09/0600Z 33.2N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
24H  09/1800Z 36.2N  91.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H  10/0600Z 39.1N  87.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H  10/1800Z 41.6N  83.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H  11/0600Z 43.5N  80.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H  11/1800Z 45.0N  77.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake