Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Satellite imagery this morning suggests that Milton is getting
better organized, with the central dense overcast getting larger
and some outer banding forming in the western semicircle.
Satellite intensity estimates currently range between 30-45 kt, and
based on this and the increasing organization the initial intensity 
is set at 45 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently 
enroute to investigate Milton.

Milton has turned eastward with the initial motion of 090/4 kt. 
Westerly flow on the south side of a shortwave trough over the 
northern Gulf of Mexico should steer the storm generally eastward 
during the next 36-48 h.  After that, a second trough moving over 
the northwestern Gulf should cause the storm to turn northeastward 
toward the Florida Peninsula at a faster forward speed.  While the 
track guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario, 
there remains some spread in both the track and forward speed, so it 
is too early to specify which portions of the Florida Peninsula will 
get the worst impacts.  After crossing Florida, Milton should turn 
eastward over the Atlantic in the mid-latitude westerly flow.  The 
new forecast track is nudged a little south of the previous track 
and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models. It should be noted that 
the average NHC track error at day 4 is around 150 miles.  
Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact track.

The intensity forecast has a lot of complexities. First, Milton is a 
small cyclone, and such systems can both strengthen and weaken very 
rapidly. Second, while the cyclone is going to be in a favorable 
environment through about 60 h, it will encounter strong shear and 
dry air entrainment after that time.  Third, the proximity of a 
frontal system over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida suggests 
the possibility that Milton will undergo extratropical transition at 
some point during the forecast period. The intensity guidance 
continues to show a significant spread in the forecast peak 
intensity in 60-72 h, with possibilities ranging from category 1 to 
category 5 strength. Also, some of the intensity guidance forecasts 
Milton to rapidly weaken over water after peak intensity, while 
other models suggest the storm will only weaken slightly.  The new 
intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows 
Milton reaching a peak intensity of 105 kt at 72 h. However, this is 
below the intensity consensus, and it would not be surprising if the 
storm gets stronger.  Milton is expected to weaken and start 
extratropical transition while over Florida, with the transition 
completed by 120 h.

Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a
powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting
portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week.
Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen
to local officials.


Key Messages:
1.  Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week.  Hurricane Watches could be issued as
early as late today for portions of Florida.

2.  There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 23.0N  94.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  06/1800Z 23.0N  94.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  07/0600Z 22.9N  92.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  07/1800Z 22.9N  91.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  08/0600Z 23.4N  89.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
60H  08/1800Z 24.5N  87.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  09/0600Z 26.0N  85.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  10/0600Z 29.0N  80.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 31.0N  74.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven