Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

Satellite images indicate that Beryl has been strengthening at a
quick pace.  The storm is now more symmetric with the low-level
center located beneath an expanding central dense overcast feature.
Showers and thunderstorms are also organized in curved bands on the
west side of the circulation.  The initial intensity is increased to
55 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and Beryl is
nearing hurricane strength.

Beryl has been wobbling around, but the general motion has been
westward at a fast 20 kt.  A strong subtropical ridge should keep
the storm moving generally westward at only a slightly slower
forward speed for the next few days.  This motion should take Beryl
across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday, and then
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea early next week.  By
the middle of next week, the cyclone might gain a little more
latitude as it feels some influence from a weakness in the ridge,
before another ridge builds to its northwest.  The NHC track
forecast has been nudged southward based on the trends in the latest
model runs.

The storm has been on a steady strengthening trend since it formed
yesterday, and now that its structure is more symmetric and compact,
it likely will have an opportunity to rapidly intensify given the
low wind shear conditions.  The new NHC intensity forecast
explicitly calls for rapid strengthening and shows Beryl becoming a
major hurricane before moving across the Windward Islands.  The
environment becomes a little less conducive after Beryl moves into
the Caribbean Sea, and some increase in shear will likely end its
strengthening phase and cause slow weakening toward the end of the
period.  This forecast shows more aggressive strengthening in the
short term and a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous
one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to rapidly strengthen and be a major hurricane
when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday,
bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening 
storm surge.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the 
Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the 
Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system.  Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
details of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 10.0N  47.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  30/0000Z 10.4N  50.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  30/1200Z 11.1N  53.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  01/0000Z 11.8N  57.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  01/1200Z 12.6N  60.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
60H  02/0000Z 13.7N  64.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  02/1200Z 14.9N  68.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  03/1200Z 17.0N  75.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 18.7N  81.4W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi