Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Satellite images indicate that Beryl continues to gradual organize
with more banding features near the center, expanding outflow and 
strong bursts of convection rotating around the eyewall.  However, 
dry air is still present within the inner core, keeping the 
intensification slow at this time, with only a broken banded
eyewall structure.  While the central pressure reported by an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has fallen to 988 mb, there
hasn't been much change in the winds reported, so the intensity
remains 55 kt.

The intensity forecast is tricky because the environment is
becoming quite favorable for significant intensification as Beryl
should be moving over sea-surface temperatures near 87F tonight and
light shear, plus even an enhancement of jet dynamics north of the
storm.  All of the model guidance respond to these conditions by
showing a large increase in deep convection near the center and 
higher winds.  However, some less predictable factors could prevent 
a big increase in winds, including dry air in the inner core, a 
somewhat large radius of maximum winds, and slightly faster landfall 
timing.   Given that the regional hurricane models still show 
significant deepening, the official forecast continues to call for 
near rapid intensification through landfall.

Beryl has turned north-northwest at about 10 kt.  The storm should 
turn northward overnight before making landfall along the middle 
Texas coast early on Monday before dawn.  The new forecast is very 
close to the previous one through landfall.  After Beryl moves 
inland, the latest guidance turns the system northeastward late 
tomorrow and it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. The long-term 
track is a bit faster and east of the last one, consistent with a 
blend of the ECMWF and GFS models.


Key Messages:

1.  There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from the north entrance to the Padre Island
National Seashore to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and
Galveston Bay.  Residents in those areas should follow any advice
given by local officials and follow evacuation orders.

2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to
portions of the Texas coast tonight and early Monday. A Hurricane
Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass. 

3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected tonight 
through Monday night across portions of the middle and upper Texas 
Gulf Coast and eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding 
is also expected. 

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning
flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before
venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 26.8N  95.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  08/0600Z 28.3N  95.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  08/1800Z 30.4N  95.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
36H  09/0600Z 32.6N  94.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
48H  09/1800Z 34.9N  92.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H  10/0600Z 37.2N  89.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H  10/1800Z 39.7N  86.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H  11/1800Z 43.5N  80.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake