Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

The convective structure of Beryl continues to wax and wane, with 
some deep convection now attempting to redevelop on the western and 
southern side of the circulation, as evident on both GOES-16 
satellite and radar imagery out of Brownsville, TX. The Air Force 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft that departed the storm a few hours ago 
provided a last fix with 700-mb winds of 56 kt in the northeastern 
quadrant and a pressure of 995 mb. Since there has not been much 
meaningful change to the tropical storm's structure since that time, 
the initial intensity will remain 50 kt for this advisory.

Beryl continues to move northwestward, though a little more poleward 
than before estimated at 320/10 kt. Over the next 24 hours, Beryl is 
expected to turn north-northwestward or even northward before the 
system makes landfall along the Texas coast in a little more than 24 
hours. The track guidance this cycle has made a shift eastward and 
is a little faster, and the NHC track forecast has also shifted in 
that direction, in between the latest TCVN and HCCA consensus aids.  
It is worth noting that some guidance, such as the GFS and HAFS-A 
are even further east. After Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance 
shows the system accelerating farther northeastward, ultimately 
phasing with a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley while it 
transitions into a post-tropical cyclone. 

Even though Beryl has not intensified over the past day, vertical 
wind shear is in the process of decreasing below 10 kt over the 
storm this morning, which should provide it with a 24-30 hour window 
to start intensifying as it mixes out the dry air that prevented 
persistent organized convection around the core. The fastest rate of 
intensification is likely to occur right before landfall, and the 
latest intensity forecast still shows Beryl becoming a hurricane 
again in 24 hours, with some additional intensification possible 
right up until landfall.  This forecast is consistent with the 
hurricane-regional models that also show the most significant 
intensification right before Beryl makes landfall. There also 
remains some potential that Beryl could rapidly intensify before 
landfall, with the latest SHIPS-RII suggesting this possibility is 
2-3 times above climatology. 

It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 24-36 
hours is about 30-50 miles and the average intensity error is close 
to one category.  Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties 
when using the forecast information. Based on changes to the 
forecast track this advisory, Hurricane Warnings have been extended 
northward up to San Luis Pass. 


Key Messages:

1.  There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation 
late tonight and Monday along the coast of Texas from the north 
entrance to the Padre Island National Seashore to High Island, 
including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay. 
Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local 
officials and follow evacuation orders.

2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to 
portions of the Texas coast late tonight and Monday. A Hurricane 
Warning is now in effect from Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass. 
Preparations should be rushed to completion before tropical storm 
conditions begin late today.

3. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally 
considerable, is expected across portions of the middle and upper 
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas today through Monday night. River 
flooding is also expected.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through 
Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning 
flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before 
venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 25.3N  94.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  07/1800Z 26.3N  95.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  08/0600Z 28.1N  96.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  08/1800Z 30.2N  96.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
48H  09/0600Z 32.5N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
60H  09/1800Z 34.7N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H  10/0600Z 36.7N  91.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H  11/0600Z 40.5N  87.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  12/0600Z 43.5N  83.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin