Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Recently, a convective burst has developed near the center of Beryl 
in the northwestern quadrant, and the low-level center is for the 
moment no longer exposed.  Tail Doppler radar data from the NOAA 
aircraft suggests that the cyclone has become better aligned 
vertically during the past few hours, likely due to the effects of 
this burst.  Reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft show that the central pressure is now near 997 mb, 
with the Air Force plane reporting severe turbulence in the 
convection. The initial intensity remains 50 kt for this advisory 
based on the flight-level and SFMR wind data from the two aircraft.

The initial motion is 300/10 kt.  Water vapor imagery shows a 
developing mid-latitude trough over the central United States that 
is opening a break in the subtropical ridge over Texas.  Beryl is 
expected to turn northwest later today, then turn northward by 
48-60 h into the break, with the center making landfall on the 
Texas coast. Recurvature to the northeast is subsequently expected 
after 72 h.  The forecast guidance has not changed much since the 
previous advisory, and the new forecast track is basically an update 
of the previous track.  The new track lies between the main 
consensus models and the HCCA corrected consensus model. 

Beryl remains in an area of about 15 kt of southerly vertical 
shear, and water vapor imagery shows mid- to upper-level dry air 
over the southern semicircle of the cyclone.  This combination 
suggests the possibility that the current convective burst will 
weaken later today.  After 24 h, the shear is forecast to diminish, 
and the intensity guidance is in good agreement that significant 
strengthening should occur.  Based on this, the intensity forecast 
shows only modest strengthening during the first 24 h, followed by 
intensification to hurricane strength before landfall in Texas.  
The peak intensity is based on the HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A and HAFS-B 
guidance.  After landfall, Beryl is expected to weaken, with 
the system forecast to decay to a remnant low pressure area by
120 h.

It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 48 
hours is about 70 miles and the average intensity error is close to 
one category.  Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties 
when using the forecast information.


Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and 
life-threatening storm surge along portions of the lower and middle 
Texas coast late Sunday into Monday, where Hurricane and Storm Surge 
Watches are in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for 
portions of deep south Texas and additional warnings will likely be 
required later today. Interests in these areas should follow any 
advice given by local officials.

2. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally 
considerable, is likely across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and 
eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week.

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through 
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed 
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 23.0N  92.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  07/0000Z 23.7N  93.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  07/1200Z 24.9N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  08/0000Z 26.2N  96.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  08/1200Z 27.7N  96.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  09/0000Z 29.3N  96.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
72H  09/1200Z 30.9N  96.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
96H  10/1200Z 33.5N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  11/1200Z 36.5N  90.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven