Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
900 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024

Kirk has almost completed extratropical transition.  The inner core
of the system has basically collapsed and deep convection is
limited to the northern half of the circulation.  The system is
moving into a baroclinic zone, and it is expected to be an
extratropical cyclone later today.  The initial intensity is nudged
downward to 65 kt based on a blend of the latest satellite 
intensity estimates.

Strong shear, dry air, cool waters, and a decrease in upper-level
dynamics should cause Kirk to gradually lose strength.  However, the
system's wind field will remain large and Kirk is still expected to
be a strong extratropical low during the next couple of days.  The
intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest GFS
solution.

Kirk is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial
motion is 050/26 kt.  A turn to the east-northeast with an
increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days
as the system moves within the fast mid-latitude westerly flow.
This should take the extratropical low to the north of the Azores on
Tuesday and across western Europe on Wednesday.

Although Kirk is over the open ocean, it is still producing large
swells that could lead to life-threatening rip currents across
portions of the Caribbean, Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S., and
Atlantic Canada.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 40.2N  41.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  07/1800Z 42.2N  36.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H  08/0600Z 43.4N  29.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  08/1800Z 43.5N  21.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  09/0600Z 43.9N  11.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  09/1800Z 46.0N   2.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi