Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024

Kirk is in the process of transitioning into an extratropical 
cyclone.  Satellite images show that the associated deep convection 
is now confined to the northern side of the circulation and that the 
inner core has been eroding.  In addition, there appears to be some 
frontal features beginning to form.  The initial intensity is 
lowered to 70 kt following a blend of the latest satellite intensity 
estimates.  The 34-kt wind radii have been tweaked on the system's 
east side based on recent ASCAT data.

Extratropical transition should be complete on Monday when the 
system moves over water temperatures in the low 20's C and into an 
environment of nearly 40 kt of vertical wind shear.  These 
parameters will also cause steady weakening during the next few 
days, and dissipation seems likely by day 4.  The models are in 
good agreement, and this forecast is closest to the latest GFS 
solution.

Kirk is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial 
motion is 045/22 kt.  A turn to the east-northeast with a notable 
increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days as 
the system moves within the mid-latitude westerly flow.  This 
should take the extratropical low to the north of the Azores on 
Tuesday and across western Europe on Wednesday.

Although Kirk is over the open ocean, it is still producing large 
swells that could lead to life-threatening rip currents across 
portions of the Caribbean, Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S., and 
Atlantic Canada.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 38.6N  43.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  07/1200Z 41.0N  39.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H  08/0000Z 42.9N  33.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  08/1200Z 43.5N  25.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  09/0000Z 43.8N  16.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  09/1200Z 45.6N   6.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  10/0000Z 48.1N   3.7E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi