Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Beryl's structure this morning is a shadow of its former self in the 
Caribbean, with the low-level center partially exposed and displaced 
south of the best mid-level rotation and deep convection. The final 
couple of Air Force Hurricane Hunter fixes indicated the pressure 
was rising, though the aircraft did also observe 850-mb flight level 
winds of 65 kt, which still supports maintaining an initial 
intensity of 50 kt. This value is between the Dvorak intensity 
estimates provided by TAFB and SAB. Beryl's wind radii were adjusted 
some from to a combination of aircraft, scatterometer, and synthetic 
aperture radar wind data.

Beryl is currently estimated to be moving west-northwest at 
300/10-kt. Soon, the tropical storm is expected to turn more 
northwestward and gradually slow down as the steering currents 
evolve due to both a weakness developing in the subtropical ridge to 
the north, in addition to an upper-level low positioned west of 
Beryl also imparting more poleward steering. After the significant 
rightward shifts in the track guidance over the past day or so, the 
latest cycle has come into better agreement very near the previous 
NHC forecast track. In fact, the latest forecast track is very close 
to the prior forecast, roughly between the latest GFS and ECMWF 
forecasts. This track also splits the difference between the 
reliable TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. However, it should be noted 
that there still remains a fair amount of across-track spread in the 
latest ECMWF ensemble guidance at the time Beryl is forecast to make 
landfall in Texas on Monday. 

The poor structure of the tropical storm this morning does not favor 
much intensification in the short-term, and I suspect it will take 
another day or so for convection to reorganize around the inner core 
of Beryl. This process could also be slowed by a decent amount of 
dry air in the southern Gulf of Mexico being imported into Beryl's 
circulation by about 20 kt of southerly wind shear. However, this 
wind shear decreases to under 10 kt per SHIPS guidance after 24 
hours as Beryl moves into very warm 29-30 C sea-surface 
temperatures. The upper-level low currently inducing the southerly 
shear will also become positioned farther southwest of Beryl, in a 
quadrant more favorable for TC intensification.  Thus, strengthening 
is expected to begin on Sunday with the rate of intensification 
likely to increase in the final 24 hours before landfall, in 
agreement with the most favorable conditions being prescribed by the 
GFS and ECMWF models. The intensity forecast remains on the high 
side of the guidance envelope, but is also similar to the prior 
forecast and shows Beryl becoming a hurricane before reaching the 
Texas coast on Monday.

It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 60 hours
is about 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to one
category.  Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties when
using the forecast information.


Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and
the Texas Coast late Sunday into Monday, where Hurricane and Storm
Surge Watches are in effect. Additional watches and warnings may be
required later today. Interests in these areas should follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally 
considerable in nature, is likely across portions of the Texas Gulf 
Coast and eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through midweek.

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 22.2N  91.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  06/1800Z 23.3N  92.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  07/0600Z 24.4N  94.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  07/1800Z 25.6N  95.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  08/0600Z 27.0N  96.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
60H  08/1800Z 28.5N  96.7W   80 KT  90 MPH...ON THE COAST
72H  09/0600Z 30.3N  96.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
96H  10/0600Z 32.9N  94.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  11/0600Z 35.5N  90.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin