Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

The center of Beryl has emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico
just northwest of Progreso in the Yucatan Peninsula.  Surface
observations and NOAA aircraft Tail Doppler Radar data indicate
that the storm has become significantly titled with the low-level
center located to the southwest of the mid-level vortex, with most
of the showers and thunderstorms located closer to the mid-level
center.  The latest flight-level wind data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft support lowering the initial intensity to
50 kt.  The minimum pressure is now up to 996 mb.

Beryl has been moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt as the 
system remains steered by a mid-level ridge located over the 
southeastern U.S.  This motion should continue through early 
Saturday,  After that time, a gradual turn to the northwest with a 
decrease in forward speed is predicted as Beryl moves toward a 
weakness in the ridge caused by a trough over the south-central U.S. 
The models show a shortwave trough reinforcing the weakness late in 
the weekend, which could cause a turn more toward the north just 
before Beryl makes landfall.  The latest guidance has again shifted 
to the right and is a little faster than the previous cycle, and the 
NHC track forecast has been adjusted in those directions.  The new 
track forecast is very close to the latest GFS model prediction, 
which has been the best performer for Beryl up to this point.  

Since Beryl's structure has degraded significantly from its passage 
over the Yucatan, it likely will take a little time for the storm to 
recover.  However, the overall environmental conditions are 
conducive for strengthening with increasing water temperatures and 
decreasing vertical wind shear along the expected track.  In 
addition, the global models are suggesting that the upper-level wind 
pattern might become more diffluent before the system reaches the 
coast, which could aid in the intensification process.  Although the 
global models are not particularly skillful in predicting the 
maximum winds of a tropical cyclone, they do assess the 
environmental factors well and the ECMWF and GFS models show 
significant decreases in the system's minimum pressure over the next 
couple of days.  Based on these fundamental factors, the NHC 
intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the next day 
or so, followed by more steady strengthening until Beryl makes 
landfall.  This forecast is similar to the previous one.

Based on the latest forecast, the Hurricane Watch has been extended 
eastward along the Texas coast.  It is important to note that the 
average NHC track error at 60-72 hours is 80-100 miles and the 
average intensity error is close to one category.  Users are 
reminded to consider these uncertainties when using the forecast 
information.


Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and 
life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and 
the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday, where 
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Additional watches 
and warnings may be required on Saturday. Interests in these areas 
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of
next week.

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 21.7N  90.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  06/1200Z 22.7N  91.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  07/0000Z 23.9N  93.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  07/1200Z 25.0N  95.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  08/0000Z 26.2N  96.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
60H  08/1200Z 27.6N  96.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  09/0000Z 29.2N  96.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
96H  10/0000Z 31.8N  95.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0000Z 33.9N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi