Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

Satellite imagery and surface observations from NOAA buoy 41040 
indicate that the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles doe not 
have a well-defined circulation, and that the convection is not 
well organized.  However, these observations also suggest the 
possibility that a new center may be trying to form to the west or 
northwest of the advisory position.  Until that is confirmed by 
either daylight satellite imagery or an upcoming Hurricane Hunter 
flight, the system will remain at potential tropical cyclone 
status.  The initial intensity is a possibly conservative 25 kt.

The initial motion is a fast 280/22 kt.  A mid-level ridge is 
forecast to remain in place to the north of the potential tropical 
cyclone for the next 24-36 hours, which should more or less 
maintain the current heading during that period with some decrease 
in forward speed.  After that, a mid-latitude trough moving 
eastward from the eastern United States is forecast to create a 
large break in the subtropical ridge, with the system turning 
northwestward and northward into the break.  While the model 
guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, there 
is still uncertainty on where the predominant center will 
eventually form, and this will affect where the system may track 
with respect to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto 
Rico.  The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the 
previous forecast.

Based on the disturbance's currently disorganized state and 
continued easterly shear, the intensity forecast during the first 
36 h has been nudged downward.  However the system is still 
expected to become a tropical storm near or over the Leeward 
Islands.  Environmental conditions become more favorable for 
development after 24-36 hr, and the intensity forecast shows 
significant strengthening during that time.  This portion of the 
new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before or 
as it reaches the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are 
in effect.  Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding 
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands by later today into 
Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday.

3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the 
nearby islands.  Additional watches and warnings will likely be 
required for portions of the northeastern Caribbean later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 14.4N  52.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  12/1800Z 15.0N  55.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H  13/0600Z 15.7N  59.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  13/1800Z 16.5N  62.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  14/0600Z 17.9N  64.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  14/1800Z 19.4N  66.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  15/0600Z 21.0N  66.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  16/0600Z 25.0N  67.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 29.5N  65.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven