Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012024
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The system has not become better organized over the past few hours,
with limited central deep convection and the strongest thunderstorm 
activity near the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.  The cloud pattern is 
still not classifiable via the Dvorak technique.  ASCAT 
scatterometer data indicated that the inner circulation was still 
not well organized, with a broad area of light winds near the 
estimated center. Since the system still lacks a well-defined center 
it will continue to be designated as a potential tropical cyclone.  
An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate 
the system later this morning to assess whether the circulation is 
becoming better defined.

Although there is significant uncertainty in the center location, 
my best guess of initial motion is northward near 5 kt.  This 
general motion is likely to continue into tonight, followed by a
gradual westward turn due to a mid-level ridge building over the
northern Gulf Coast.  On this track, the center will be near 
northeastern Mexico by late Wednesday.  The official forecast track 
is slightly south of, and a bit faster than, the previous one and 
close to the latest model consensus.

Based on NOAA buoy data, the intensity remains near 35 kt.  The 
system has a large upper-level anticyclonic outflow pattern 
associated with it, and is situated over warm waters with light 
vertical shear.  These conditions would favor strengthening but the 
lack of a well-defined inner core is inhibiting intensification.  
Assuming that the inner circulation becomes better established 
during the next day or so, some increase in strength is forecast up 
to landfall.

It should be noted that regardless of the exact track of the
low, we expect this system to have a large area of heavy rains,
moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north
of the center.  The official wind speed probabilities are likely
underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric
area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:
1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system.  The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico
and South Texas.   This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across
Central America into northeast Mexico.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast beginning this morning and continuing through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Wednesday over
portions of the Texas coast south of Port OG��Connor, where a Tropical 
Storm Warning is in effect, and over portions of northeastern 
Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 21.3N  93.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  18/1800Z 22.0N  93.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H  19/0600Z 22.7N  94.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H  19/1800Z 23.2N  96.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H  20/0600Z 23.3N  98.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
60H  20/1800Z 23.5N 100.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
72H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch